A GIS-based tool for the estimation of impacts of volcanic ash dispersal on European air traffic

Impacts of volcanic ash on air traffic have been reconsidered in the aftermath of the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano (Iceland), which caused great impacts to the European air traffic network. We present a GIS-based methodology to estimate the impacts of tephra dispersal from explosive volcanic eruptions aimed at improving air traffic management in case of ash-contaminated airspace. We use the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption as a case study with two main objectives: to introduce the methodology and to perform a posteriori analysis of the 2010 aviation breakdown. Modelling results of atmospheric tephra dispersal over Europe build upon a reanalysis dataset of meteorological and volcanological parameters. Given that there is still no consensus on thresholds of ash concentration that is critical for flight safety, the methodology takes into account several ash concentration values. Results are hourly tables and maps containing information on potentially affected airports and routes at different Flight Levels (FLs). This allows estimating impacts at a high temporal frequency. We also compute daily-accumulated impacts for each FL. We compare our results with the 2010 impacts. Furthermore, advantages and disadvantages of this methodology are discussed and compared with similar existing tools. Finally, we underline possible improvements of the methodology and describe further work.