Recent developments in the detection of seismicity patterns for the Italian region

Reliable forecasting tools must be formalized and tested, first in retrospect and then in experimental real-time mode. The operational issues of monitoring, validation and use of forecasts based on seismicity patterns are discussed, reviewing the advances in the application of CN earthquake prediction algorithm in Italy and surroundings. The algorithm CN, originally formulated for the California-Nevada region (hence its name), is based on pattern recognition concepts and uses detectable inverse cascade of seismic process to allow for a diagnosis of the intervals of time when a strong event is likely to occur inside a specified region. The results achieved by CN in about two decades of rigorous prospective monitoring of seismicity in Italy, considering a regionalization based on the seismotectonic zoning and the main geodynamic features of the area, are tested. The results from real-time experimental testing support the hypothesis that the precursors of a strong shock can be found within homogeneous seismogenic areas associated to a dominating geodynamic process and confirm the feasibility of earthquake forecasting based on the analysis of seismicity patterns at the intermediate-term middle-range scale.