Falsification of Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) by Real Earthquakes: The Design Magnitude Mdesign for Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA)

Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) conducted before an earthquake should be validated or falsified by a real earthquake. Such validation or falsification leads to the evaluation and improvement of the pre-earthquake SHA. For deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA), such falsification can be implemented without ambiguities. The falsification and improvement play a key role in the reduction of future seismic disaster risk. Falsification of SHA shows similarities with that of earthquake forecast/prediction, among which one of the most important similar features is that the test by real earthquakes is much more effective for a real forward prediction form than for the retrospective analysis. This chapter systematically summarizes the related concepts with the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA) background. A comprehensive review of NDSHA, as well as its applications, can be obtained through Panza et al. (2022). The summary is also largely based on the experiences of the authors in the China Seismic Experimental Site (CSES), see Zhang et al. (2021, 2022a, 2022b, 2023).