Earthquake prediction research and preparedness

Several algorithms, structured according to a general pattern-recognition scheme, are currently applied for the space-time identification of strong earthquakes in the Italian territory. Two, namely CN and M8S algorithms, for intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction purposes and one for the recognition of earthquake-prone areas. These algorithms can be viewed as independent experts, hence they can be combined to better constrain the alerted seismogenic area. In this work the intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions are integrated with the procedures developed for the recognition of strong earthquake prone areas and for the deterministic assessment of seismic hazard. This permits to associate the alarms declared by the prediction algorithms to a set of possible seismic ground motion scenarios. We analyse in detail the case of CN predictions and we supply examples of scenarios corresponding to possible events with M6.5, that turn out to be the closest to several cities in Italy. A practical advantage of the described procedure is the time information given by the intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction that can be very useful for preparedness and rescue actions and to define priority criteria for the more detailed studies required by seismic microzonation