Several algorithms, structured according to a general pattern-recognition scheme, are currently applied for the space-time identification of strong earthquakes in the Italian territory. Two, namely CN and M8 algorithms, for intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction purposes and one for the recognition of earthquake-prone areas. These algorithms can be viewed as independent experts, hence they can be combined to better constrain the alerted seismogenic area. We examine here the possibility to integrate the intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions with the procedures developed for the recognition of strong earthquake prone areas and for the deterministic assessment of seismic hazard. This permits to associate the alarms declared by the prediction algorithms to a set of possible seismic ground motion scenarios. We analyse in detail the case of CN predictions and we supply examples of scenarios corresponding to possible events with M6.5, that turn out to be the closest to several cities in Italy. A practical advantage of the described procedure is the time information given by the intermediate-term earthquake prediction that is very useful to plan preparedness and rescue actions and to define priority criteria for the more detailed studies required by seismic microzonation.

Earthquake preparedness: the contribution of earthquake prediction and deterministic hazard research.

PERESAN A;
2003

Abstract

Several algorithms, structured according to a general pattern-recognition scheme, are currently applied for the space-time identification of strong earthquakes in the Italian territory. Two, namely CN and M8 algorithms, for intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction purposes and one for the recognition of earthquake-prone areas. These algorithms can be viewed as independent experts, hence they can be combined to better constrain the alerted seismogenic area. We examine here the possibility to integrate the intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions with the procedures developed for the recognition of strong earthquake prone areas and for the deterministic assessment of seismic hazard. This permits to associate the alarms declared by the prediction algorithms to a set of possible seismic ground motion scenarios. We analyse in detail the case of CN predictions and we supply examples of scenarios corresponding to possible events with M6.5, that turn out to be the closest to several cities in Italy. A practical advantage of the described procedure is the time information given by the intermediate-term earthquake prediction that is very useful to plan preparedness and rescue actions and to define priority criteria for the more detailed studies required by seismic microzonation.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14083/5120
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