Reality Check: Seismic Hazard Models You Can Trust

Seismic safety assessments of and improvements can hardly rely on the Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project calculations, at least in Romania and Italy. We urge the necessary revision of widespread probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) maps. Physically sound deterministic methods would enable the maximal magnitude of an expected earthquake for seismically hazardous areas to be estimated with a statistically justifiable reliability. Deterministic scenarios of catastrophic earthquakes may provide a comprehensive basis for decision making for land use planning, adjusting building codes, regulations, and operational emergency management.