Near-Real-Time Damage Estimation for Buildings Based on Strong-Motion Recordings: An Application to Target Areas in Northeastern Italy

The rapid estimation of expected impacts in case of an earthquake is extremely important for emergency managers and first responders. Current near-real-time damage assessment methods rely on ground-motion estimates and exposure or fragility datasets, in some cases integrating the shaking recorded at the site (e.g., from strong-motion monitoring networks). We propose a method that estimates the expected damages on buildings based on strong-motion recordings of a seismic event. The damage assessment is based on the maximum drift (interstory) or the displacement, which is estimated by considering in a first approximation the behavior of a specific building typology as a single-degree-of-freedom oscillator. The oscillator is characterized based on the analysis of the building stock and a large number of ambient vibration measurements performed in buildings. A specific damage state occurs when the interstory drift or displacement limits available in the literature for the specific building typology are exceeded. The method, here applied to a case study in northeastern Italy, can be applied to other seismic areas worldwide to provide quick, first-level estimates of expected damages.