Toward performance-driven seismic risk monitoring for geothermal platforms: development of ad hoc fragility curves

Earthquakes, despite being a mostly natural phenomenon, may also be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, hydraulic fracturing and geothermal reservoir processes. In recent years, the occurrence of induced and triggered seismicity and its potential impact on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for an integrated risk management framework. Non-standard monitoring approaches provide valuable tools for mitigating the risk associated with earthquakes. These solutions include the use of advanced sensors and the implementation of performance-based rapid response systems for infrastructure, as well as monitoring the structural response of buildings and infrastructure in real time. Such technical solutions can be further used for validating damage forecasts determined by probabilistic approaches. The goal of this study is to establish a performance-driven monitoring system for induced seismicity. For this purpose, it is necessary to integrate analytical fragility curves in real time. These fragility curves can be derived by simplified vulnerability models that require input obtained from advanced exposure-monitoring techniques. Considering the case of induced seismicity, this also requires the expected damage to refer to non-structural components. Hence, the derived fragility curves are based on the non-structural damage criteria of typical residences. Therefore, a new approach is presented for defining analytical fragility curves of traditional or historic masonry structures, which can be found in large numbers near the geothermal platforms considered in this work.