We considered the mortality data of the earthquakes which occurred in Italy since 1800 and investigated their spatial-temporal characteristics. For this purpose, we developed a log-linearregression model relating the number of deaths to the magnitude of the earthquakes and analyzedthe distribution of the residuals from the model. We found that, for fixed magnitude, the mortalityof the earthquakes of the last decades is almost identical to that of the 19th century despite the factthat the population is decreasing in the small municipalities with high seismic hazard. There is alsoa geographical divide: for the same magnitude, an earthquake in southern Italy causes 2.9 times thenumber of victims than in northern Italy. The gap is partially justified by the higher populationdensity in the seismic areas of southern Italy, while it does not seem to depend on seismologicalfactors (seismic source, regional attenuation and site effects). The north/south divide increases toa factor of 8.3 for the earthquakes occurring between 00:00 and 05:00 a.m., when most people aresleeping and rely almost entirely on the strength of their houses for survival. We suggest thatdifferences in the quality and maintenance level of the residential buildings are the primary factorsdetermining this geographic divide, supported by data from a survey taken in 1934 and from the lastgeneral national census of 2011. Our results indicate that the situation of residential buildings inItaly requires a strict application of the seismic regulations as well as their extension to stimulatethe correct maintenance and retrofitting of the existing buildings.

Time-invariance and geographical divide of earthquake mortality in Italy since 1800

Bragato P. L.;Barnaba C;Scaini C.;Sugan M.
2020

Abstract

We considered the mortality data of the earthquakes which occurred in Italy since 1800 and investigated their spatial-temporal characteristics. For this purpose, we developed a log-linearregression model relating the number of deaths to the magnitude of the earthquakes and analyzedthe distribution of the residuals from the model. We found that, for fixed magnitude, the mortalityof the earthquakes of the last decades is almost identical to that of the 19th century despite the factthat the population is decreasing in the small municipalities with high seismic hazard. There is alsoa geographical divide: for the same magnitude, an earthquake in southern Italy causes 2.9 times thenumber of victims than in northern Italy. The gap is partially justified by the higher populationdensity in the seismic areas of southern Italy, while it does not seem to depend on seismologicalfactors (seismic source, regional attenuation and site effects). The north/south divide increases toa factor of 8.3 for the earthquakes occurring between 00:00 and 05:00 a.m., when most people aresleeping and rely almost entirely on the strength of their houses for survival. We suggest thatdifferences in the quality and maintenance level of the residential buildings are the primary factorsdetermining this geographic divide, supported by data from a survey taken in 1934 and from the lastgeneral national census of 2011. Our results indicate that the situation of residential buildings inItaly requires a strict application of the seismic regulations as well as their extension to stimulatethe correct maintenance and retrofitting of the existing buildings.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14083/1680
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