Analysis of GNSS data along the Southern Gas Corridor and estimate of the expected displacement

In the present paper, we analyze the final part of the Southern GasCorridor, a route highlighted in the European energy security andenergy union strategies. This route crosses one of the most seismicallyactive zones of theMediterranean with several recognized crustal-scaleseismogenic sources. We focus on the possibility of identifying theareas where critical differential motions could be expected alongthe route,which will be occupied by the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, overthe nominal pipeline life span of 50 yr.We analyze the available globalnavigation satellite system data and compare the results to the deformationpatterns of the most significant faults affecting the area.Weinterpolated the sparsely available velocity vectors and calculated strainrate information, both considering the region as a continuum and byapplying an original algorithmthat allows the linear interpolation withinindividual blocks. The blocks are characterized by a relatively homogenousdeformational behavior, or a specific tectonic setting, independentlyupon the neighboring ones. The results of the two methods arethen compared by calculating the maximum displacement that wouldcumulate in the next 50 yr of the pipeline lifespan and the differentialdisplacements that could cause possible bending phenomena to thepipeline structure. The methodological approach followed in this researchcould be applied to other infrastructures to identify the segmentsprone to localized deformation because of interseismic tectonic loading