Accuracy and Uncertainty Analysis of Selected Methodological Approaches to Earthquake Early Warning in Europe

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is becoming an increasingly attractive real-time strategy for mitigating the threats posed by potentially devastating incoming seismic events. As efforts accelerate to develop practical EEW-based solutions for earthquake- prone countries in Europe, it is important to understand and quantify the level of performance that can be achieved by the underlying seismological algorithms. We conduct a conceptual study on EEW performance in Europe, which explicitly focuses on the accuracy and associated uncertainties of selected methodological approaches. Twenty-three events fromfour diverse European testbeds are used to compare the quality of EEW predictions produced by the Virtual Seismologist and PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem algorithms. We first examine the location and magnitude estimates of the algorithms, accounting for both bias and uncertainty in the resulting predictions. We then investigate the ground-shaking prediction capabilities ...