We employ our semi-empirical kinematic model for shear body waves (KF) [Sirovich L. A simplealgorithm for tracing out synthetic isoseismals. Bull Seism Soc Am 1996;86(4):1019–27; Sirovich L.Synthetic isoseismals of three earthquakes in California-Nevada. Soil Dyn Earthquake Eng1997;16:353–62] to back-predict and then validate the regional intensity scenario of a destructiveearthquake (Loma Prieta, California,Ms7.1, October 17, 1989). Only the pre-1988 geological andseismotectonic knowledge was used to set the 11 source parameters ofKF(in this sense, our procedurewas deterministic). Then, the ranges of the pre-1988 uncertainties were explored by grid search andthe parametric combination produced 59,049 sources. The quality of our prediction was measured usingthe field intensities of 1989 by the US Geological Survey (in the MMI scale). The squared scenarioresiduals are: 73 for the meanKFscenario and 123 for the best available empirical attenuation of MMIintensity. We stress that, before usingKFin the forward mode, its automatic inverse application hasalready been validated by refinding a series of earthquake sources [Gentile F, Pettenati F, Sirovich L.Validation of the automatic nonlinear source inversion of the US geological survey intensities of theWhittier Narrows, 1987 Earthquake. Bull Seism Soc Am 2004;94(5):1737–47; Pettenati F, Sirovich L.Intensity-based source inversion of three destructive California earthquakes. Bull Seism Soc Am2007;97(5):1587–606; Sirovich L, Pettenati F. Source inversion of intensity patterns of earthquakes: adestructive shock in 1936 in northeast Italy. J Geophys Res 2004;109:B10309, doi:10.1029/2003JB002919:1–16]. If our technique had been available at the time, the 1989 pattern of damagesouth of San Francisco would have been conservatively foreseen even from 1983 on.

Validation of a kinematic and parametric approach to calculating intensity scenarios

PETTENATI F
2009

Abstract

We employ our semi-empirical kinematic model for shear body waves (KF) [Sirovich L. A simplealgorithm for tracing out synthetic isoseismals. Bull Seism Soc Am 1996;86(4):1019–27; Sirovich L.Synthetic isoseismals of three earthquakes in California-Nevada. Soil Dyn Earthquake Eng1997;16:353–62] to back-predict and then validate the regional intensity scenario of a destructiveearthquake (Loma Prieta, California,Ms7.1, October 17, 1989). Only the pre-1988 geological andseismotectonic knowledge was used to set the 11 source parameters ofKF(in this sense, our procedurewas deterministic). Then, the ranges of the pre-1988 uncertainties were explored by grid search andthe parametric combination produced 59,049 sources. The quality of our prediction was measured usingthe field intensities of 1989 by the US Geological Survey (in the MMI scale). The squared scenarioresiduals are: 73 for the meanKFscenario and 123 for the best available empirical attenuation of MMIintensity. We stress that, before usingKFin the forward mode, its automatic inverse application hasalready been validated by refinding a series of earthquake sources [Gentile F, Pettenati F, Sirovich L.Validation of the automatic nonlinear source inversion of the US geological survey intensities of theWhittier Narrows, 1987 Earthquake. Bull Seism Soc Am 2004;94(5):1737–47; Pettenati F, Sirovich L.Intensity-based source inversion of three destructive California earthquakes. Bull Seism Soc Am2007;97(5):1587–606; Sirovich L, Pettenati F. Source inversion of intensity patterns of earthquakes: adestructive shock in 1936 in northeast Italy. J Geophys Res 2004;109:B10309, doi:10.1029/2003JB002919:1–16]. If our technique had been available at the time, the 1989 pattern of damagesouth of San Francisco would have been conservatively foreseen even from 1983 on.
Macroseismic intensity; Scenarios; Site effects
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
LomaPrietaSDEE.pdf

non disponibili

Tipologia: Altro materiale allegato
Licenza: Non specificato
Dimensione 1.47 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.47 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14083/3499
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo

Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 7
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 7
social impact