Joint Multi-Scenario-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Alexandria, Egypt

The available historical documents for the city of Alexandria indicate that it was damaged to varying degrees by several (historical and instrumentally recorded) earthquakes and by highly destructive tsunamis reported at some places along the Mediterranean coast. In this work, we applied the neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis (NDSHA) approach to the Alexandria metropolitan area, estimating ground motion intensity parameters, e.g., peak ground displacement (PGD), peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground acceleration (PGA), and spectral response, at selected rock sites. The results of this NDSHA zonation at a subregional/urban scale, which can be directly used as seismic input for engineering analysis, indicate a relatively high seismic hazard in the Alexandria region (e.g., 0.15 g), and they can provide an essential knowledge base for detailed and comprehensive seismic microzonation studies at an urban scale. Additionally, we established detailed tsunami hazard inundation maps for Alexandria Governorate based on empirical relations and considering various Manning’s Roughness Coefficients. Across all the considered scenarios, the average estimated time of arrival (ETA) of tsunami waves for Alexandria was 75–80 min. According to this study, the most affected sites in Alexandria are those belonging to the districts of Al Gomrok and Al Montazah. The west of the city, called Al Sahel Al Shamally, is less affected than the east, as it is protected by a carbonate ridge parallel to the coastline. Finally, we emphasize the direct applicability of our study to urban planning and risk management in Alexandria. Our study can contribute to identifying vulnerable areas, prioritizing mitigation measures, informing land-use planning and building codes, and enhancing multi-hazard risk analysis and early warning systems.