Characterization of seismic hazard indicators and tsunamigenic potential in the Scotia Arc region and Antarctic Peninsula

The objective of this study is to evaluate seismic hazard indicators for the Scotia Arc region and the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula—an area that concentrates the highest seismic activity within the Antarctic circumpolar zone. Seismicity from 1970 to 2023 was analyzed in terms of its temporal occurrence, spatial distribution, and radiated seismic energy. The crustal deformation zones associated with this seismicity were identified and assessed based on their relative potential for seismic hazard. Additionally, marine areas with significant tsunamigenic potential were identified as contributing factors to regional seismic hazard. Using numerical simulations based on the theory of gravity wave propagation in fluid media, dynamic indicators were estimated to characterize the spatial and temporal evolution of tsunami phenomena in the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic marine areas. Based on the analysis of these seismic hazard indicators, a division into seismotectonic zones was proposed, reflecting varying degrees of seismic hazard potential. The results indicate that the South Orkney Islands—home to Argentina’s year-round Antarctic station Orcadas—present the highest level of risk. The South Shetland Islands rank second in seismic vulnerability and also host permanent Antarctic research bases. While the South Sandwich Islands exhibit the greatest seismic hazard, their lack of permanent human settlements generally mitigates the associated local seismic risk.