The operational and decision-making problems related to earthquake forecast/prediction and seismic hazard assessment are nowadays a matter of significant debate, particularly on account of the very unsatisfactory global performance of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment at the occurence of most of the recent destructive earthquakes. While it is recognized that opera- tional tools must demonstrate their capability in anticipating large earthquakes and the related ground shaking by rigor- ous verification and validation process, only few methods proved effective so far. In view of the inherent uncertainties in predicting predictable, the usefulness of any forecast/ prediction method can then be judged taking into account the wide range of possible mitigation actions of different levels (from increased preparedness to evacuation). This paper aims to open a debate and complement the Summary and Recommendations by the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting, established after the earthquake in L’Aquila (M = 6.3, 6 April 2009). The issues related with the definition, validation, and possible use of forecasting/ prediction methodologies, are addressed with special emphasis on existing operational practice in Italy.

Operational earthquake forecast/prediction

Peresan Antonella;
2012

Abstract

The operational and decision-making problems related to earthquake forecast/prediction and seismic hazard assessment are nowadays a matter of significant debate, particularly on account of the very unsatisfactory global performance of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment at the occurence of most of the recent destructive earthquakes. While it is recognized that opera- tional tools must demonstrate their capability in anticipating large earthquakes and the related ground shaking by rigor- ous verification and validation process, only few methods proved effective so far. In view of the inherent uncertainties in predicting predictable, the usefulness of any forecast/ prediction method can then be judged taking into account the wide range of possible mitigation actions of different levels (from increased preparedness to evacuation). This paper aims to open a debate and complement the Summary and Recommendations by the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting, established after the earthquake in L’Aquila (M = 6.3, 6 April 2009). The issues related with the definition, validation, and possible use of forecasting/ prediction methodologies, are addressed with special emphasis on existing operational practice in Italy.
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
12_06.pdf

non disponibili

Tipologia: Altro materiale allegato
Licenza: Non specificato
Dimensione 541.35 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
541.35 kB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14083/556
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo

Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 33
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 32
social impact