DuringtheAugust–September2003AutonomousOceanSamplingNetwork-IIexperiment,theHarvard Ocean PredictionSystem(HOPS)andErrorSubspaceStatisticalEstimation(ESSE)systemwereutilized in real-timetoforecastphysicalfieldsanduncertainties,assimilatevariousoceanmeasurements(CTD, AUVs,glidersandSSTdata),providesuggestionsforadaptivesampling,andguidedynamical investigations.Thequalitativeevaluationsoftheforecastsshowedthatmanyofthesurfaceocean featureswerepredicted,butthattheirdetailedpositionsandshapeswerelessaccurate.Theroot-mean- squareerrorsofthereal-timeforecastsshowedthattheforecastshadskillouttotwodays.Meanone- day forecasttemperatureRMSerrorwas0:26 C lessthanpersistenceRMSerror.Meantwo-dayforecast temperature RMSerrorwas0:13 C lessthanpersistenceRMSerror.Meanone-ortwo-daysalinityRMS error was0.036PSUlessthanpersistenceRMSerror.Thereal-timeskillinthesurfacewasfoundtobe greaterthantheskillatdepth.Patterncorrelationcoefficientcomparisonsshowed,onaverage,greater skill thantheRMSerrors.Forsimulationslasting10ormoredays,uncertaintiesintheboundariescould lead toerrorsintheMontereyBayregion. Followingthereal-timeexperiment,areanalysiswasperformedinwhichimprovementsweremade in theselectionofmodelparametersandintheopen-boundaryconditions.Theresultofthereanalysis wasimprovedlong-termstabilityofthesimulationsandimprovedquantitativeskill,especiallytheskill in themainthermocline(RMSsimulationerror1 C lessthanpersistenceRMSerrorouttofivedays). This allowedforanimproveddescriptionoftheoceanfeatures.Duringtheexperimentthereweretwo- week to10-daylongupwellingevents.Twotypesofupwellingeventswereobserved:onewithplumes extendingwestwardatpointAn˜o Nuevo(AN)andPointSur(PS);theotherwithathinnerbandof upwelled waterparalleltothecoastandacrossMontereyBay.Duringstrongupwellingeventstheflows in theupper10–20mhadscalessimilartoatmosphericscales.Duringrelaxation,kineticenergy becomesavailableandleadstothedevelopmentofmesoscalefeatures.At100–300mdepths,broad northwardflowswereobserved,sometimeswithacoastalbranchfollowingtopographicfeatures.An anticyclone wasoftenobservedinthesubsurfacefieldsinthemouthofMontereyBay.
Forecasting and reanalysis in the Monterey Bay/California Current region for the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network-II experiment
Cossarini G.;
2009-01-01
Abstract
DuringtheAugust–September2003AutonomousOceanSamplingNetwork-IIexperiment,theHarvard Ocean PredictionSystem(HOPS)andErrorSubspaceStatisticalEstimation(ESSE)systemwereutilized in real-timetoforecastphysicalfieldsanduncertainties,assimilatevariousoceanmeasurements(CTD, AUVs,glidersandSSTdata),providesuggestionsforadaptivesampling,andguidedynamical investigations.Thequalitativeevaluationsoftheforecastsshowedthatmanyofthesurfaceocean featureswerepredicted,butthattheirdetailedpositionsandshapeswerelessaccurate.Theroot-mean- squareerrorsofthereal-timeforecastsshowedthattheforecastshadskillouttotwodays.Meanone- day forecasttemperatureRMSerrorwas0:26 C lessthanpersistenceRMSerror.Meantwo-dayforecast temperature RMSerrorwas0:13 C lessthanpersistenceRMSerror.Meanone-ortwo-daysalinityRMS error was0.036PSUlessthanpersistenceRMSerror.Thereal-timeskillinthesurfacewasfoundtobe greaterthantheskillatdepth.Patterncorrelationcoefficientcomparisonsshowed,onaverage,greater skill thantheRMSerrors.Forsimulationslasting10ormoredays,uncertaintiesintheboundariescould lead toerrorsintheMontereyBayregion. Followingthereal-timeexperiment,areanalysiswasperformedinwhichimprovementsweremade in theselectionofmodelparametersandintheopen-boundaryconditions.Theresultofthereanalysis wasimprovedlong-termstabilityofthesimulationsandimprovedquantitativeskill,especiallytheskill in themainthermocline(RMSsimulationerror1 C lessthanpersistenceRMSerrorouttofivedays). This allowedforanimproveddescriptionoftheoceanfeatures.Duringtheexperimentthereweretwo- week to10-daylongupwellingevents.Twotypesofupwellingeventswereobserved:onewithplumes extendingwestwardatpointAn˜o Nuevo(AN)andPointSur(PS);theotherwithathinnerbandof upwelled waterparalleltothecoastandacrossMontereyBay.Duringstrongupwellingeventstheflows in theupper10–20mhadscalessimilartoatmosphericscales.Duringrelaxation,kineticenergy becomesavailableandleadstothedevelopmentofmesoscalefeatures.At100–300mdepths,broad northwardflowswereobserved,sometimeswithacoastalbranchfollowingtopographicfeatures.An anticyclone wasoftenobservedinthesubsurfacefieldsinthemouthofMontereyBay.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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