Numerical models for monitoring and forecasting ocean ecosystems: a short description of the present status

Understanding and managing marine ecosystems under potential stress from human activities or climate change requires the development of models with different degrees of sophistication in order to be capable of predicting changes in living components in relation to human pressures and environmental variables. Recent advances in ecosystem modelling are the focus of this paper, which reviews numerical approaches to analyse the characteristics of marine conditions in terms of typical units, i.e. individuals, populations, communities, and ecosystems. It specifically examines the current classification of numerical models of increasing complexity – from individuals and population and stock assessment models to models representing the whole ecosystem by covering all trophic levels – and presents examples and their operational maturity and readiness, finally demonstrating their use for supporting marine resource management, conservation, planning, and mitigation actions.